Harley has as close to 100% market share in the big cruiser/touring market as practical.
Everyone on here complaining about the LiveWire, Bronx and Pan America... You gotta understand: you're already here! They've already got you. And you've already bought your Street Glide or Road King. What they need to do is appeal to folks who AREN'T you. They have to make bikes that you don't want to buy. That's the only way they can expand their customer base.
I've said it before, if the new bikes Harley is making are pissing off their old customers then Harley is on the right track.
Harley has as close to 100% market share in the big cruiser/touring market as practical.
Everyone on here complaining about the LiveWire, Bronx and Pan America... You gotta understand: you're already here! They've already got you. And you've already bought your Street Glide or Road King. What they need to do is appeal to folks who AREN'T you. They have to make bikes that you don't want to buy. That's the only way they can expand their customer base.
From HD's 2nd quarter financial statements:
The U.S. 601+cc industry was down 4.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2018. Harley-Davidson's second quarter U.S. market share was 46.6 percent. Harley-Davidson's year-to-date Europe market share was 8.8 percent through June.
I agree with your statement that that these bikes are not targeting existing customers, they are trying to bring in new ones.
I laugh at the existing customers complaining they should be focusing on the faithful. It's not like they are ceasing production on the existing lineup.
The U.S. 601+cc industry was down 4.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2018. Harley-Davidson's second quarter U.S. market share was 46.6 percent.
If you view the entire motorcycle industry as broken into displacement categories, and lump all the vehicles 601cc and higher into one giant market, then yes, their market share is 46.6 percent.
But is that a truly realistic representation of the market that they actually compete in? Think what that means. That means everything from cafe racers to scramblers to adventure bikes to sport bikes to supersports. If that 601cc+ is viewed as one market, that would put the KLR650 dual sport in the same market as the 2500cc Triumph Rocket III. It would put the Suzuki V-Strom 650 in competition with the CVO Tri-Glide. It puts the Ducati Panigale in competition with the BMW 650cc scooter, and the supercharged Ninja H2 against the Gold Wing. Is that reasonable?
Of course not.
So if you look at it in reality, no Harley on the market is competing today against dirt bikes, adv bikes, scooters, superbikes, dual sports, or anything else.
Harley today sells cruisers and touring bikes, period. And in that market, they own at least 90% market share. And that is what I was referencing.
Harley already has the cruiser and tourer market locked up tight and there's really no room for growth there. If they want to grow their unit sales, it's going to have to come in markets where they don't compete yet. Electric, adventure, small-displacement, and sport bikes are all markets where they currently have ZERO market share.
If they want to make inroads on the 53.4% of the 601cc+ market they don't already own, they can't do it with cruisers and touring bikes. They've already got that market as close to 100% as is possible. And that market is rapidly shrinking. They NEED to branch into new markets.
Last edited by FatBob2018; 11-07-2019 at 01:32 PM.
Does anyone look at motorcycle manufacturers the same way that they do automobile manufacturers?
Take GM. They have Chevy, GMC, Buick and Cadillac. They all fill a different segment in the market and are owned by the same corporation. Why couldn’t Harley do the same? Keep the cruisers Harley, call the sport bikes and ADV’s something else. Everything would still be Harley and people could still be brand loyal. There’s a lot of people who have a Corvette and a Denali. Just throwing out an idea.
From a business standpoint, I hate to be negative, but these new models are just not going to translate into increased US sales volume. Re the above poster: Why would HD want to try to target Ducati's sales clientele? Ducati's total US sales in 2018 of all models was just 7843 units (link)! Say you got lucky (lol) and captured some of that with the Bronx, say half of that - wow projecting 3000+ sales is not worth investing in tooling!
The whole adventure bike phenomenon is false news. I ride a lot and travel a lot, all over the country visiting parks and recreational areas. I just don't see hoards of these adventure bikes crawling all over the country in numbers large enough that I could make a case to the moco management to invest millions in a production line. Large numbers of guys ripping around up on some mountain trail on a big vtwin beast? Heck, most who do that just buy dirt bikes, or for darn sure would not even think of buying a HD for that - for one thing, their peers would harass them, and the press they read will be constantly flaming them, and like it or not the lemming effect is real. In the last big rally I attended, I saw zilch adventure bikes. I did not see one adventure bike when I visited Colorado or Utah the last time - NOT ONE! Flame me if you want. There is just not this huge bursting floodwater surge of guys out on adventure bikes. It's the pet rock syndrome all over again.
Most motorcycle people just want to tool and putt around with their mate on warm summer evenings. Like I said in another post, zinging up and down the main drag dodging cars hanging off the bike in curves and splitting lanes acting a twerp stretched up over the tank with my nose on the gauges and my gonads crammed up against the gas tank by one of those jacked up seats that let the rear tire spray mud all up your back? Good luck to HD selling that stuff in a profitable way. The target audience for that is short lived due to Darwin, derides HD since that's the cool attitude now, and has no money anyway,
You're basing your opinion on your location, possibly a survey you personally conducted asking males if they want an ADV bike and what you have personally seen. You need to conduct that same survey elsewhere to see what other countries want, let us know what you find out. When I was on Rodeo drive and walked through the stores I didn't see any movie stars so I guess there aren't any in CA.
Im sure HD is more in touch with global markets than you are and they aren't building these bikes with Utah specifically in mind.
I have three bikes a sportster 1200 a Kawasaki Vulcan 650s and a Triumph street triple rs
I Dont think that street fighter will be any where as good as the Triumph, and you don't need a load of add ons to make it go
considering the triumph is only 765cc
I saw the Bronx at the NYC IMS Bike show last week and got to talk to one of the engineers. Not much info on it yet other than they plan to launch in November 2020.
The bike was in a glass case like the Pan America so you could not sit on it and consequently it was hard to get good photos
Why couldn’t Harley do the same? Keep the cruisers Harley, call the sport bikes and ADV’s something else.
Yes, I don't think the bike will happen. For the most part, I don't think younger guys want the baggage, excuse the pun, that comes with the Harley logo. They're genres that are owned by other companies.
The only niche HD could go for are sports bikes aimed at bigger, taller younger guys as many of the Japanese and European bikes are designed for smaller, shorter people.
I actually like the style of the Enduro version, if it had been a Honda, but what gets me about these bikes is that there designers have clearly never had to clean a motorcycle in their fuggin' life. I don't know who they hire, young, "hip" sports shoe designers or something, but my first reaction looking at the engine and frames is f*** that if you want me to clean it. You can't get in around the tubes, the engine is going to catch little puddles of water everywhere and the paint peel off. Trying to play catch up on "modern styling" is going to leave then becoming instantly dated as European or Japan, again, takes them on the inside of the curve and brings out another new look.
Neither the Asians or the Europeans are going to buy the Enduros because either it's too tall or they want the association with BMW, so who are they after, BMW owners in the US who want a better dealer network?
I think they should skip chasing those markets and put everything into the electrical bikes as it's the future. Look at how Musk is doing.
11-06-2019, 06:48 PM
