It's not IF it's WHEN!
#52
04-08-2010, 02:28 PM
Here's how it works:
If roll a dice (a 6 sided one) 6 times, the chance of rolling a 6 on any one of those rolls is relatively high (higher than 1 in 6 but not a guarantee). If you do not roll a 6 on the first 5 tries, it's still only a 1 in 6 chance you will roll a 6 on the last try.
So, the longer you ride, the more likely you are to be involved in an accident. It's the same for everything (even winning the lottery - the longer you play, the greater the chance of you winning at least once).
However, all things being equal, the chance of you having a mishap on day one is the same chance of a mishap on day 2000 - the previous mishap-free days have no bearing on the future outcome.
(Of course, there are caveats: however they are mostly under your control).
If roll a dice (a 6 sided one) 6 times, the chance of rolling a 6 on any one of those rolls is relatively high (higher than 1 in 6 but not a guarantee). If you do not roll a 6 on the first 5 tries, it's still only a 1 in 6 chance you will roll a 6 on the last try.
So, the longer you ride, the more likely you are to be involved in an accident. It's the same for everything (even winning the lottery - the longer you play, the greater the chance of you winning at least once).
However, all things being equal, the chance of you having a mishap on day one is the same chance of a mishap on day 2000 - the previous mishap-free days have no bearing on the future outcome.
(Of course, there are caveats: however they are mostly under your control).
#53
04-08-2010, 03:21 PM
I'm 32 and have been on dirt bikes since I was 6. I have wrecked dirt bikes and quads, but not a street bike. I know it can happen, but I am very careful with my bikes and always watching for bad drivers or stuff in the road. Some go down alot-others never do. Just be careful and enjoy the ride.
#54
04-08-2010, 03:30 PM
Why is everyone telling me it's not IF you wreck your bike it's WHEN you wreck your bike? Are the statistics that high that almost every person gets into a wreck on their bike? I mean, granted, I have had a few close calls but I haven't wrecked yet and I'm just wondering if my time is coming or if everyone is trying to put the fear of riding in me!
IF, but WHEN."
(Not everyone chokes on a hotdog.)
#55
04-08-2010, 03:31 PM
I ride year around. I have been rear ended 4 times at stop lights. In the 70's I had one large crash and only left a 4"X4" of skin on my body. Learn alot from that one. Now in the dirt half the things on that list has been done and a lot more. Now I wear more protection in normal riding. I ride to work and ride at work for my work and ride after work and every weekend event. It's my way of life now.
#56
04-08-2010, 03:35 PM
You have never been in the Army the first thing they tell you on there planes is how it will crash. And on there boats it's about the same way.
#57
04-08-2010, 03:43 PM
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Funny, I've been following this thread the last little while. At lunch, I almost had a car rear end me at a stop sign. (I heard the screetch behind me and looked in the mirror.) The driver and passenger were both readjusting themselves and probably cleaning up their pants. I went about my way. Just another day in the life of riding the bike. 30 seconds later, a car almost turned into me trying to turn left. My horn alerted 'em and I'm still alive. Ya, pretty sure today reaffirmed to me that an accident will happen one day. And as careful as you can be, it will most likely not be your own fault.
#58
04-08-2010, 06:34 PM
Grand HDF Member
Funny, I've been following this thread the last little while. At lunch, I almost had a car rear end me at a stop sign. (I heard the screetch behind me and looked in the mirror.) The driver and passenger were both readjusting themselves and probably cleaning up their pants. I went about my way. Just another day in the life of riding the bike. 30 seconds later, a car almost turned into me trying to turn left. My horn alerted 'em and I'm still alive. Ya, pretty sure today reaffirmed to me that an accident will happen one day. And as careful as you can be, it will most likely not be your own fault.
Ride safe!
#59
04-08-2010, 06:50 PM
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In the past 15 years I've dropped one twice in the parking lot, dumped one going down the road at about 30mph, and locked up the brakes and went into a skid at least twice to avoid an accident.
But it's all been worth it. If I could have looked into a crystal ball and known all that ahead of time i wouldn't have decided not to ride because of it.
But it's all been worth it. If I could have looked into a crystal ball and known all that ahead of time i wouldn't have decided not to ride because of it.
#60
04-08-2010, 07:06 PM
Probability is you will wreck sooner or later but thats not 100% obviously...the severity of the wreck is what is in question..it could be fatal, or it could be a broken bone, could be a skin to the knee or hands, could simply be falling over and scratching up the bike a little..there is just no way to say you will never wreck, there is no way to say how bad, there is no way to say for sure you will wreck. Some people ride their whole lives and never do any more than just dump the bike over on its side..some wind up dead or paralyzed.
Most wrecks are from doing stupid stuff, like standing on the bike while its rolling, pulling wheelies, and various other ignorant stunts that get you what you deserve, you cant ride like a maniac and expect to get away with it forever..but you can ride responsibly, stay aware at all times and be carefull and stay out of trouble..instead of drag racing through town, do the speed limit and watch for other drivers that might pull in front of you from a side street..watch your mirror for the person talking on the cell or day dreaming. slow down when taking corners to a speed that is "Safer" rather than diving into corners trying to drag your pegs..watch out for the little things like gravel, wet pavement, leaves, sticks, or anything that will pull a wheel out from under you...Really, if you control the bike, and control yourself you reduce posibility's of a wreck dramatically. It just boils down to common sense.
And I would like to add this...the Majority of bike accidents are minor, you walk away a little sore, ego bruised, but its minor stuff..i cant tell you how many times i have wrecked a Motorcycle, the count is way up there..been riding since i was 11..hospitalized once..but it was not life threatening...and out of all those wrecks all those years, I deserved what i got, i was riding beyond my ability and was riding stupidly.
Most wrecks are from doing stupid stuff, like standing on the bike while its rolling, pulling wheelies, and various other ignorant stunts that get you what you deserve, you cant ride like a maniac and expect to get away with it forever..but you can ride responsibly, stay aware at all times and be carefull and stay out of trouble..instead of drag racing through town, do the speed limit and watch for other drivers that might pull in front of you from a side street..watch your mirror for the person talking on the cell or day dreaming. slow down when taking corners to a speed that is "Safer" rather than diving into corners trying to drag your pegs..watch out for the little things like gravel, wet pavement, leaves, sticks, or anything that will pull a wheel out from under you...Really, if you control the bike, and control yourself you reduce posibility's of a wreck dramatically. It just boils down to common sense.
And I would like to add this...the Majority of bike accidents are minor, you walk away a little sore, ego bruised, but its minor stuff..i cant tell you how many times i have wrecked a Motorcycle, the count is way up there..been riding since i was 11..hospitalized once..but it was not life threatening...and out of all those wrecks all those years, I deserved what i got, i was riding beyond my ability and was riding stupidly.