AMF - Round II?

 

They seem to be running the company well in hard times. The only real problem I see is the increase from $781M to $2,444M in finance receivables held for sale. That's matched with a increase from $722M to $1,739M in short-term debt. All they say about HDFS is they're searching for a solution. They definitely need to find a solution to that problem.

 

I believe Harley got tariff protection from the govt. in the 80's . Effectively increasing the price of imported bikes to protect them for a set period of years. As I recall, eventually, Harley asked the Govt to rescind the policy early as they began doing well after restructuring. Then, we went a 20 year run of unprecidented popularity and sales increases. The RUB years.
Now, back to the future it's the 70's again.
At least it's starting to feel like it is.

Maybe Obama will get on TV sitting next to a fireplace , wearing a sweater like Carter did. That helped!

 

Harley needs finance capital to sell bikes. That may be the biggest problem in the short term. They will need to adjust production as sales weaken. But, in the long term, my guess is that the product line will shift substantially. As inept as competitors have been in understanding the U.S. market, Harley has had an easy ride until now. The road ahead is full of bumps.

 

One concern is that quality control and selection of accessories and parts could suffer based on the following statement (from the H-D earnings press release on their website):

Close its distribution facility in Franklin, Wis., consolidating Parts and Accessories and General Merchandise distribution through a third party.

 

Sad times we live in and probably more to come. With all industries and most companies laying off thousands of workers. Turn on the news and watch as Microsoft lays off 5,000workers. Whats next Steve Jobs forced to leave Apple for medical reasons and in turn forced to layoff a couple thousand workers. This is depressing and I hope it gets better soon.

 

I agree the good dealers (Like Northwest Harley in Lacey) will be able to pull through. Others may not. The other part of this news is the trickle down affect this will have on the Motorcycle industry as a whole. There are some really great, small aftermarket companies that will have a tough time surviving.

 

It is said they may be closing Capitol Drive and moving all engine and trans production to Pligrim Road. They will also be closing the Franklin Parts and Accessory wareshouse and distribution center. All parts and accessories will be handled by a contracted vendor. We did this years ago and it was a nightmare. High backorder rates, slow to recieve orders. They will combine all FL and Softail frame and powdercoating at York. 800 Union workers will be released and 300 additional Milwaukee based jobs will be eliminated. Most of these jobs will be eliminated due to the 13% drop in production and closing of P&A distribution center. Testing and marketing will still be done. No AMF guy's. Capitol Drive has so much history. My grandfather was there when they introduced that plant. They just built the Franklin facility around 2000 and just completed remodeling Capitol just before the 100th. They even hid the Product Development Center in the woods behind Capitol. I can't imagine them closing this palces up. PDC will be out there all by itself now. I guess it is smart preventive preperation.

 

I was at two different dealerships located near me in the last two weeks and both had ALOT of bikes on the showroom floor. More than I've seen in years. Both had a fair share of customers milling around which was good. I hope things get better soon.
With all the billions Harley has made in the last 20yrs. I know they'll be fine.

 

+ one i picked mine up last week dodged that bullet