Non-Rating Action Commentary (FitchRatings, November 2023.)

Higher U.S. Household Debt Service Will Contribute to Consumer Spending Slowdown in 2024

(and that includes expensive motorcycles.)

I've bought 2 motorcycles in the past 18 months, and both sellers (dealers,) were very happy to see me. The floor traffic isn't there at the moment, until (at least,) interest rates drop way below 10% (!) on such toys.
I financed the first Sept '22 at 5.45%, I sold stock in December '23 to pay for the second. (tier one, 790 fico and still pushing 10%.?) Dollars are expensive right now, so toys need to adjust in their asking prices for the next 6 months or so.

 

Its a Harley specific issue. US auto sales were up 12% from last year in the most recent report with Toyota and GM leading the pack. Even Ford posted a 7% sales increase.

 

did you forget what last year was like?

 

Looks like kojak is using Biden economy numbers, so that would explain the discrepancy...

 

i caught that too but wasnt going to be the guy to bring politics in it. like saying all these jobs were created after shutting them down. i bought a car last year. you couldnt get squat, now people are making up for it.

 

It's definitely a buyers market here in Arizona. The used bike market is dead. I'm seeing clean low milage Harleys from the 90's through 2010 that are listed at thousands less than a year ago and they're not selling.
Wording in the many of the ads are:
"taking any reasonable offer", "must sell", "need gone this week" and "need money".

The main stream media may be saying the economy is as good as ever, but my eyes, 401K and checkbook are seeing different.

 

And I hope for the same soft landing. The last thing this country needs is a recession. I am very concerned with some of the trends…consumer debt on the rise, bankruptcies on the rise, foreclosures rising, auto and motorcycle loan delinquencies are rising too. I can only imagine how credit card rates are killing folks who run a balance.

With regard to used bike pricing, I do not believe we have seen the bottom yet. The economy is going to have to degrade more to get to that 2% inflation goal. Inflation has gotten sticky. This means the Feds will likely sit on the current rates for months to continue the slowdown. Big toys like motorcycles, boats, etc. are going to continue to slide as folks have to adjust to the reality of higher rates.

 

nope, 2019 was the recent peak for auto sales, 2020 was the bottom with plants shutting down. 2021 was better than 2020, 2022 was better than 2021, 2023 was better than 2022 and 2024 is forecast to be significantly better than 2023. I think if you want to bash any part of the auto industry, it’s the overly ambitious push towards ev’s that has stalled as consumers are still flocking to ice vehicles.

 

Excuse me, it's called Bidenomics.

 

(Edited - Never mind this one is off the rails)