Originally Posted by CaffeineBuzz

Is there a way to clear these dealers from my head unit?

Originally Posted by 72RD350

I am aware that a few of the closures, such as Boardtracker, had nothing to do with Rewire.

It appeared as I researched each dealer that many of the Closures were opportunistic in nature, as was likely the case with Black River Falls. Many owners were simply in a position where it was time to get out while the carrot was dangled in front of them.

After looking at some data, these are next likely states to see closure of dealers.

IL, WV, VT, CT - these states are experiencing negative population growth; dealers in these states will need to attract buyers from neighboring states to remain viable
VT is already down to a single dealership
WV has more dealerships per capita than any in this group but appears to have twice as many dealerships as it needs
CT could be expected to lose at least one dealership and possibly more.
IL still has 26 dealerships. It is likely one of the more fertile grounds for dealership reduction.
I expect no less than five dealership closings out of this group of four states.

There are seventeen states whose population is neither in decline nor growing - they are just treading water when it comes to population trends. Of these states, WI, PA, OH, MI, and NY all have in excess of 20 dealers each and these will be where the MoCo would get their next massive reduction in dealerships. Don't be surprised if a quarter to a third of dealerships are closed in these five states and it could be as many as a half the dealerships in Wisconsin. Out of all seventeen states, I expect no less than 38 dealership closings.

There are eight states where the population is growing, but not at an exorbitant rate. Of these states you'll see the most dealership closures in IA, IN, and MD with a sprinkling from NH, OK, and MA. Overall, I would expect 20 dealership closures in these eight states.

Twenty-one states are booming in population growth. Some of these, such as FL, TX, and CA are saturated in dealerships and could likely lose a few despite their large populations. SD, ND, and MT have far more dealerships than their populations can support. TN and NC have more than 20 dealerships each - some likely ripe for closure. Out of these 21 states I would expect 30 dealership closures.

Obviously, I don't have access to the data that HD is using but it is clear to me that, excluding geographical distribution and financially unique dealerships, they are driving toward having no more than 1 dealership per 500k people. In some states they are simply well in excess of this density. Using my density model I can see them closing about 93 more dealerships getting them to a total of 160 closures and 579 active dealers. Getting to 200 dealerships would require them to be really aggressive (closing an additional 34 dealers) and drive to a density slightly over 1 per 600k people.

Don't misunderstand - this is not what I want HD to do and, while some closures are inevitable for a variety of reasons, I don't advocate reducing the revenue income base. Closing dealerships will result in a decline in revenue to the MoCo. The only question is whether they can drive up new bike prices to offset that loss in revenue. My bet is that they can't - largely due to the demographic problem and also due to macroeconomic issues (wealth gap, etc...).

I could be entirely wrong in my analysis. I'm not an MBA but I work with them enough to have an idea of how they think. I think Jochen Zeitz is making a deal with the devil thinking he can cut costs and raise prices. Cutting costs is easy to do. Raising prices not so much. He could very easily tank demand for new bikes if he's not careful. He's betting that the American public has an appetite for new HD bikes that they may very well not have. (He's probably thinking that an American owning a Harley is akin to a German owning a BMW.) It's hard to sell a new bike at a premium price if you don't make it with premium components. The stock suspensions on Touring models automatically disqualify them from being classified as "Premium". The lower end bikes, while good in their own right, clearly aren't "Premium" and he's going to get no price increase on those. Exactly how much higher than a decent car can you price a new, non-CVO Touring model? Unlike the days of yore, CVO models having been sitting unsold on salesfloors. That should be some indication the market for new Harleys isn't what it used to be. One can buy a pretty nice automobile these days for the price of a new Harley Touring model. At some price point even devoted riders are going to "Nope" their way out of a new Harley and stick with what they have or buy Used. That won't help Jochen at all.

Originally Posted by Pale Horse Rider

Interesting analysis. While there are exceptions, most folks spending $25K or more on a bike won’t service it themselves. How far will people go to service their bike? More than 30 minutes ride and I think people start to consider their options. Harley’s last a long time unlike cars. If it’s harder to buy a new bike that’s good news for used bike sales and independent shops.

Originally Posted by WP50

You can add one that the list missed.
Big Spring Harley Davidson. In Big Spring Texas.
Family owned for 91 years by the Walkers.

One of the guys I ride with put together a visit to show support for them.
I didn't think to count how many showed up but it was a lot.
They sure appreciated it as many of us appreciated them for many years.
I could call Kay for some of the most of the wall stuff and she always came though. Audio cable for a 10 UC 3 dealers near my son , all said N/A by itself Kay found it

WP

Originally Posted by ChromeJunkie

Thanks. I didn’t know Big Spring H-D had closed. I live a little over an hour west of Big Spring and have known Robert and Vickie about 15 years. Too bad because they were the oldest H-D dealership in Texas.

Originally Posted by 72RD350

Here's the updated list.