Sitting in my office and a tech just came in to service the HVAC. He saw my Harley calendar and asked, "Are you a Harley guy?" When I said yes he smiled and told me his story. He's 40 years old, if he's ever going to ride, now's the time. He took rider classes last summer and has his M endorsement (NY state), and he wants to get an Iron 883. "I'm too old for a crotch rocket." We talked for a bit and I showed him a vid of my bike. He said maybe next time he comes back he'll be on his bike. Really put a smile on my face!
Ducati has seen positive growth the past 8 years. Triumph was up over 11% in 2017. However, overall, the industry is down and the challenge is real.
It would have been very hard for the MoCo to sustain the success of the 2000's. Harley would consider creating manufacturing plants outside the US to serve the North American market, thus, reducing costs, if they didn't believe it would sink their business. What's Harley without its US cache? Who's going to buy a Mexican bagger?
Yes, when you only sell 8787 Ducatis in 2016 and have double digit growth, while Harley shipped 262, 221 against a projection of 264,000 (single digit lag) and did not achieve its desired numbers, it is plain to see why if you do not look at the particulars and focus on the percentage only, a trick used by Polaris who hides their sales numbers, it is easy to think the grass is greener for Ducati, or for the Polaris Indian.
Just imagine a level playing field were either Ducati or Polaris had to sell 264,000 motorcycles in the USA in a single year. Only during the recall of the Indians, did we learn how few motorcycles they really sold.
I am happy for Ducati, I could care less for Motley Crews exaggerations about Polaris Victory and Indian brand names, and I like Triumphs, well maybe not the new ones made in India.
If your sales are small, you use percentage. If you are hiding actual sales figures, you use percentages and lump divisions together. If you sell 262, 221 motorcycles, 1779 short of projections, its just business. So if a .0068 drop in sales from 264,000 is equal to a 12 or 14% sales increase to 8787 in your book, then I can see why so many are jumping on the band wagon and singing the song of Harley's decline. On the other hand, many look at the real figures and may come to a more realistic conclusion.
Oh, I am happy that Ducati has had 7 years of double digit growth, if only 10 percent, that means 7 years ago they sold about 4200 motorcycles. I'd be touting percentages as well if that was my business.
Sitting in my office and a tech just came in to service the HVAC. He saw my Harley calendar and asked, "Are you a Harley guy?" When I said yes he smiled and told me his story. He's 40 years old, if he's ever going to ride, now's the time. He took rider classes last summer and has his M endorsement (NY state), and he wants to get an Iron 883. "I'm too old for a crotch rocket." We talked for a bit and I showed him a vid of my bike. He said maybe next time he comes back he'll be on his bike. Really put a smile on my face!
Man, I have an XL 883(2005 a bit before the Iron configuration) and I like that bike alot. Its my first, and I have since bought a Dyna, but still split time between the two bikes. Its 13 years old now, and I still enjoy it. Good bikes. One thing that may be killing sales is that, H-D's will last a riders entire riding career with proper care and maintenance. There is no reason to buy a new one every 5 years or so like a car or pickup, well unless a rider just has a hankering for a brand new bike. I can understand that.
Last edited by Super Glidester; 01-24-2018 at 03:45 PM.
You're right - shouldn't compare small numbers with big ones:
The Honda Super Cub has been in production since 1958. In 2008, Honda announced it produced 60 million units. By 2014, that number jumped to 87 million, and just last year Honda announced it hit the 100-million unit mark.
That's a 67% increase in ten years, on just one model. True, it's ugly as hell, and about as completely opposite to a Harley as you can get, but if you want to compete in the world market like Harley wants, then you should look at what's selling... https://www.cycleworld.com/honda-sup...uter-than-ever
Yes, when you only sell 8787 Ducatis in 2016 and have double digit growth, while Harley shipped 262, 221 against a projection of 264,000 (single digit lag) and did not achieve its desired numbers, it is plain to see why if you do not look at the particulars and focus on the percentage only, a trick used by Polaris who hides their sales numbers, it is easy to think the grass is greener for Ducati, or for the Polaris Indian.
Just imagine a level playing field were either Ducati or Polaris had to sell 264,000 motorcycles in the USA in a single year. Only during the recall of the Indians, did we learn how few motorcycles they really sold.
I am happy for Ducati, I could care less for Motley Crews exaggerations about Polaris Victory and Indian brand names, and I like Triumphs, well maybe not the new ones made in India.
If your sales are small, you use percentage. If you are hiding actual sales figures, you use percentages and lump divisions together. If you sell 262, 221 motorcycles, 1779 short of projections, its just business. So if a .0068 drop in sales from 264,000 is equal to a 12 or 14% sales increase to 8787 in your book, then I can see why so many are jumping on the band wagon and singing the song of Harley's decline. On the other hand, many look at the real figures and may come to a more realistic conclusion.
Oh, I am happy that Ducati has had 7 years of double digit growth, if only 10 percent, that means 7 years ago they sold about 4200 motorcycles. I'd be touting percentages as well if that was my business.
I agree with you. Ducati's 8,800 US and 55,000 worldwide pales in comparison, and Triumph is probably less than that. Regardless, both companies are doing a nice job managing their business. I'm not doom and gloom - I believe the MoCo will make their mark in a challenging climate, but the gravy days are probably over, at least for the foreseeable future. The biggest concern is getting young people interested in riding. If they don't care for it, then all manufactures will eventually suffer.
You're right - shouldn't compare small numbers with big ones:
The Honda Super Cub has been in production since 1958. In 2008, Honda announced it produced 60 million units. By 2014, that number jumped to 87 million, and just last year Honda announced it hit the 100-million unit mark.
That's a 67% increase in ten years, on just one model. True, it's ugly as hell, and about as completely opposite to a Harley as you can get, but if you want to compete in the world market like Harley wants, then you should look at what's selling... https://www.cycleworld.com/honda-sup...uter-than-ever
To be accurate and to stay on topic, how many Honda Super Cubs did Honda sell in the USA in 2016, or 2017?
If we start comparing sales of small cc bikes in other countries to make our arguments that Harley has come to the end of their line, or that Harley as a company needs to compete in small cc bikes worldwide, then I agree, Honda has a jump start.
I was reacting to the discussion of motorcycle sales in the USA. If you want to make the statement using your numbers that Harley will never be a Honda, all I can say is Thank God.
This forum is full of strange self-loathing folks who hate the bike they ride. I don't get it man.
Not me. Of course I had already been riding 27 years before I decided to to overlook all the Harley bashing and go ride one. Turns out it's really kind of fun. Since 2013 we have had an FXDC, traded it for a FLHX 6 months later then bought the wife a FXDFSE, then traded the FLHX for my current 16 FLTRU and we bought a 2003 FXD for my kid, he doesn't want to ride it so it's our backup/loaner bike.
Travel to heartland America. 99.9% of every motorcycle i see here in NW Ohio are Harleys. Seems we have a dealer every 50 miles or less. We don't see many Japanese bikes unless they are passing through. Sport bikes are for teens which are very few. I don't drive a HD because its the most refined. I drive it because i love Harleys even their faults. Nothing rides or sounds like the MOCO masterpiece that all the others continue to try and emulate. Leave the country and go to the cities and Harley domination doesn't exist as much.
The Honda Shadow 1100 looks an awful lot like a Wide Glide but you can pick up a good used one at a dealer for $2500. (I used to have one, traded it in on a Sportster and then the fever really got going and I bought a '98 FXDWG.) Kawasaki makes the Vulcan, Suzuki makes the Boulevard, and Yamaha makes the V-Star. These are all HD ripoffs at less than 1/2 HD prices.
Maybe it just takes people some time to realize you get what you pay for.
Not me. Of course I had already been riding 27 years before I decided to to overlook all the Harley bashing and go ride one. Turns out it's really kind of fun. Since 2013 we have had an FXDC, traded it for a FLHX 6 months later then bought the wife a FXDFSE, then traded the FLHX for my current 16 FLTRU and we bought a 2003 FXD for my kid, he doesn't want to ride it so it's our backup/loaner bike.
I think you just nailed the problem Harley is likely going to have.
01-24-2018, 01:43 PM
