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Thats a damn good question!
I certainly can't answer it but want to see what responses you get as I am curious too. I have an 07 fxd with 22,500 miles on it and want to know what to expect also.
Things to consider that change expectations:
1. climate - hot like Texas or Arizona will likely shorten life
2. maint - fossil, semi syn or syn oils and frequency of oil changes.
3. filter quality - are you using the HD 5 micron or a mystyery filter?
4. Lots of stop and go in traffic will shorten life. Even a couple of extended high heat stints can reduce life. I never like to hear a cyclinder cut out due to heat (HD computer cylinder autoshutdown)- to me that means damage is already happening.
5. How hard do you ride? Full bore, hard revving, two up? All of these?
I live in Florida where its warm all year round. In the summer our engines stay around 230 degrees. I use mobile 1 and love it. I change oil every 5K PERIOD along with the filter. I burn premium fuel. I have a 103 kit SE heads. 585 cams 10:5.1 pistons. She will scream. I ride it pretty good but I don't run it hard a lot. I ride two up also. I enjoy riding my scoot. I take good care of her. I feel like if i change fluids regular and service her right , that she should last at least 200K before a rebuild. That's what im hoping for. That's why I ask
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Sold my evo FXD at 90,000 mi. running good no rebuild ran 60 wt. dino in the summer and 20w50 dino in the winter. Got 18,000 on my 08 FLHT bought may 08 and use syn for the heat reduction. I think the most important thing is how you ride and how you service your bike not the type of oil used. My .02
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NRA RSO,SASS RO 1+2, NMLRA, CVMA 20-1,PGR, life VFW, AMVETS, TET-68 survivor, and Alexs grandpa.
something i did notice my biker buddys who swear by using harley syn3 are rebuilding
there motors about 30,000 miles other bikers i know and talked to who use moble1
or amsoil the motors are lasting over 100,000 miles its kinda funny the syn3 harley
guys wont admit it and are scared that harley will not honor there warrenty-ride safe
i find it hard to believe that either using syn, or regular no matter what brand that anyone would have to rebuild at 30,000 miles... unless they have 30,000 on the same oil or ran it too low...
Do your maintenance and don't worry about it. a 2 yr old bike with 56k miles on it aint worth squat anyhow. There's no reason that bike can't get well over 200k. I know plenty of Evo's that have run that far. The TC is supposedly better, go ahead and prove it. Enjoy yourself, sounds like you have a good one.
I don't use Syn3 and am not promoting Syn3, as I think it is an average product at a very high price, but I don't think any name-brand synthetic oil marketed today is a bad product, including Syn3.
Number of years ago I started a fast lube business (first one in my area) and Valvoline sent me to "oil school" .....at that time synthetic oil was just beginning to be marketed on a fairly large scale. What I learned was that there is no doubt (at least in my mind) that the synthetics will run cooler and not break down as quickly as do the fossil oils be they mineral or parafin based. Now fast forward to today.....I do use Syn 3 and have since it first came out with good results.....approximately 125K miles on 3 different scoots (65, 25 and 35 on my current bike as I was slowed down a bit due to some health issues in `06 & `07) without one issue......knock on wood. When I put the 1550 kit in my `03 last summer at 25K it was clean as a pin (including the cam tensioners, which I replaced anyway since we were there). If folks are rebuilding at 30k miles I doubt seriously it has to do with the oil. I am not promoting Syn 3, I've just had good results out of it. I use Mobil 1 in my `vettes as that has been the factory fill since 1992 and I know folks that swear by Amsol and I may go to it at some point. I change oil every 5K miles on both my scoots and my cars and have for many years. So....if I were you, I would take care of whatcha have as the reality is if ya try to sell it, a lot of folks are gonna probably pass by yours (or expect you to discount the hell out of it) because of "all the miles" when the reality is that it will probably last you many more so ride it and enjoy it.